What to do about the broken Parliament has been an ongoing issue for me and many others. It's not just the proroguing of Parliament. That's just the most recent symptom of an ongoing disease. The uniting of the right combined with the fragmenting of everyone else (and Liberal infighting) have allowed 30% of the population to run the country.
There has been talk in the past about 'uniting the left' but that's easier said than done. Though they might have flirted with coalition there is no love between the Liberals and the NDP. If anything members of these parties tend to think of the other party as their real competition and it has been that way for a very long time. The Bloc isn't going to unite with anyone unless a second Quebec nationalist party comes along. But what about the Liberals and the Greens?
Granted neither of these parties are all that 'left'. A combined Green/Liberal party would be centrist at best, but the centre is where the Liberals have traditionally been comfortable.
There has already been some cooperation between the two and each has something the other desperately needs.
The Liberals have 'the establishment'. They have infrastructure, money and names (and a party logo) that Canadians know. Just about everywhere in Canada there are people who will vote Liberal and donate Liberal regardless of what happens. What the Liberals do not have is ideas. It is hard to say what Michael Ignatieff stands for on any issue. Even during question period the Liberals points seem to be about what the Conservatives have done wrong, not what the Liberals would do instead. Additionally the Liberals have been pushing 'green and progressive yet cautious and pragmatic' rhetoric for so long that it rings hollow now. Even if the Liberals simply scooped the Green platform most Greens wouldn't believe they were sincere.
The Greens do not have 'establishment'. Other than Elizabeth May people at large don't know who they are. Their fundraising, their ground game and their party structure all are in their infancy and they have not a single seat. What they do have is street cred and ideas, lots of ideas. (see GreenParty.ca for examples.) The Greens have ideas that resonate - from democratic reform to global warming to sustainable communities the Green have a platform and when they say it people believe them.
Finally, what both sides have that the other side needs is votes. According to todays Strategic Council Poll the Liberals are now polling at 30% to the Conservatives 31% - but even if those numbers held on election day it's not enough. The best we could hope for right now would be a Liberal minority with a strong Conservative opposition. That poll though didn't say what number the Greens received. So, let's go back to the Ekos Poll of Jan. 7 (PDF) - just 10 days ago.
It showed the Conservatives at 33.1%, the Liberals at 27.8%, the NDP at 16% and the Greens at 13.4% and the Bloc at 9.8%. If you combine the Liberal and Green vote you get 41.2%, that's very close to majority territory. Granted you might lose a few Liberals who are anti-environment, you might lose a few Greens who are only parked there as a protest vote but you would gain some independents who aren't sure where to put their vote, you would gain some NDP voters who would like to see the Conservatives out and you would gain some non-voters who are ready to back a winning team and drive out Harper. All in all I think it would result in a strong Green/Liberal majority - especially if the merger included the promise of electoral reform and another leadership convention where Ignatieff could either be ratified or replaced.
In the last election the Liberals and the Greens did work together to a small extent. The Liberals did not run a candidate in Elizabeth May's home riding and at one point and Elizabeth May at one point urged strategic voting to defeat the Conservatives. She also supported the idea of a Liberal/NDP coalition - so I think it's safe to say that the door is open if Ignatieff has the courage to walk through it.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
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